Nate Kaemingk is founder and Chief Forecaster of Better Forecasting. Nate gained a deep understanding of Inferential Statistics as a mechanical engineer. In his words:
I learned about statistical modeling as a mechanical engineer and started using inferential statistics to help Fortune 500 companies make better decisions. Since then, I’ve been able to apply the same concepts to create extremely accurate and useful forecasts for many businesses from small to big. I have been a CFO, Director of Digital, Chief Forecaster, and so forth. But how did I get here?
For my first job out of college, I had to model emissions from Diesel engine combustion. That incredibly complex phenomenon had to be simplified down to a single 12×12 software table. Being wrong on predictions meant many millions of dollars in warranty issues. I learned the power and importance of prediction intervals on that very complex chemistry and physics problem.
During my MBA capstone, the commercial banker in our group asked me to put together the financials for the project because he’d never seen anyone apply sensitivity analysis and statistical modeling the way I did. I guess most people don’t normally use calculus and statistical inference for their day jobs. That’s when I knew I had something unique and powerful.
I grew from there through owning my own small businesses and some amazing opportunities to focus on business strategy and planning at Fortune 500 companies. I was the planning “Functional Excellence” leader at Cummins Inc. with visibility to $20 Billion in product pipeline. In that role, I was able to apply the principles of planning, forecasting, and some of the unique capabilities of scenario analysis and dangerous assumptions testing.
I started BetterForecasting as a passion project. I wake up each morning thinking about prediction intervals, ANOVA, the central-limit theorem, and forecast accuracy. Yes, I know that’s not normal. So I’m taking advantage of that and digging into my geekery to help companies large and small make better decisions through better forecasting.
Send me a note if you have questions: Nate@BetterForecasting.com
Learners first: We endeavor to never stop learning. Every business, market, and person have a unique perspective that can be uniquely valuable when listened to, harnessed, and applied.
Integrity and honesty: Be honest, even if it hurts. Some things aren’t for sale. It is uniquely important to quantify and state the limits of capability and the basis of assumptions in forecasting. Be exceptional at it.
Be exceptional at what is hard: This technology and space is not for the weak. It is exceptionally difficult and complex to master. We endeavor to become masters and be exceptional where things are difficult.
Eat the complexity: Just because our space is complex, doesn’t mean that the application of the technology needs to be complex. We take on the complex so that our customers can live in a simpler world.
|2012||Response surface modeling used to simplify full company financials to a single equation of inputs vs profits|
|2014||Monte Carlo analysis used at Cummins Inc. to test and compare thousands of cashflow scenarios on hundreds of new product investments|
|2016||BetterForecasting is started as Kaemingk Group LLC|
|2016||First cash forecasting completed and launched to calculate drop dead date KPI|
|2016||Inferential statistics forecasting methods for revenue developed|
|2017||Assumptions testing and scenario analysis tools developed|
|2017||Nate leaves his “day job” to pursue consulting full time|
|2018||First real-world application of forecast prediction intervals: identified that monthly rainfall was the cause of a 4.5 Sigma deviation 7 times in 11 years.|
|2018||Total local market size quantified to show monthly impact on revenue|
|2018||Five-year market leading indicators quantified from NAICS category revenue data|
|2018||Sales funnel quantified and incorporated in revenue model|
|2018||Meta convergence models for single forecast with multiple models|
|2019||Three statement cash-flow models launched|
|2020||Cash DEFCON approach to Pandemic enables customer to hold on to specialized employees|
|2020||Cash scenario planning identifies top ways to hold cash and meet strategic goals through downturn|
|2021||BetterForecasting calculation engine Software development begins|
|2021||Capacity planning vs forecast launched|
|2022||BetterForecasting calculation engine Alpha launch|